Belief Decay or Persistence? A Mixed-method Study on Belief Movement Over Time

Abstract

When individuals encounter new information (data), that information is incorporated with their existing beliefs (prior) to form a new belief (posterior) in a process referred to as belief updating. While most studies on rational belief updating in visual data analysis elicit beliefs immediately after data is shown, we posit that there may be critical movement in an individual's beliefs when elicited immediately after data is shown v. after a temporal delay (e.g., due to forgetfulness or weak incorporation of the data). Our paper investigates the hypothesis that posterior beliefs elicited after a time interval will ''decay'' back towards the prior beliefs compared to the posterior beliefs elicited immediately after new data is presented. In this study, we recruit 101 participants to complete three tasks where beliefs are elicited immediately after seeing new data and again after a brief distractor task. We conduct (1) a quantitative analysis of the results to understand if there are any systematic differences in beliefs elicited immediately after seeing new data or after a distractor task and (2) a qualitative analysis of participants' reflections on the reasons for their belief update. While we find no statistically significant global trends across the participants beliefs elicited immediately v. after the delay, the qualitative analysis provides rich insight into the reasons for an individual's belief movement across 9 prototypical scenarios, which includes (i) decay of beliefs as a result of either forgetting the information shown or strongly held prior beliefs, (ii) strengthening of confidence in updated beliefs by positively integrating the new data and (iii) maintaining a consistently updated belief over time, among others. These results can guide subsequent experiments to disambiguate when and by what mechanism new data is truly incorporated into one's belief system.